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Google vs Microsoft: The Numbers Speak

Here is an interesting thought experiment.  Google is positioning itself as the platform for the web, which is the reason that Microsoft has launched their Microsoft Live initiative.  How real is the threat to Microsoft from Google?  I ran the numbers from publicly available financial information, and extrapolated them forward. 

At current growth rates, in 2005 Google’s business is roughly three times as large as MSN.  In 2006, Google’s revenues are about the same as Office or Windows.  And in 2007, Google’s revenues are about the same as Office and Windows combined.

Colored cells are estimates.

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Google  $  1,466  $  3,189  $  6,219   $12,127   $23,648
MSFT: Client  $10,394  $11,546  $12,234  $12,963  $13,735
MSFT: Info Worker  $  9,113  $10,653  $11,013  $11,385  $11,770
MSFT: MSN  $  1,953  $  2,216  $  2,274  $  2,334  $  2,395 

Rather illuminating, wouldn’t you say?  And now you know the reason that Ray Ozzie made such a point of saying that advertising supported software was part of the strategy at the Microsoft Live launch.

{ 5 comments… add one }

  • No November 29, 2005, 12:41 pm

    There is no way Google is going to continue to double it's numbers every year. Worst extrapolation ever.

  • Alec November 29, 2005, 2:01 pm

    No doubt. But even if you curb Google's growth rate, it's still a scary scenario for Microsoft. Let's say you trim them to 40% annually. By 2009 they're a bigger company than Windows and Office, rather than 2007.

  • Matt November 30, 2005, 12:27 am

    Did you know that the damn Lulu ad is blocking half your table?

  • Alec November 30, 2005, 2:28 am

    Thanks Matt. Yet another CSS inconsistency between IE and Firefox.

  • Alec November 30, 2005, 2:38 am

    Matt, my CSS mods didn't work, and I'm no wizard… so I edited the text. Not the cleanest solution, but now it's readable. Hope that helps.

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