Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Post image for The Post-PC Era is an old idea

The Post-PC Era is an old idea

by alec on May 18, 2011

They say that fashion goes in cycles.  Don’t get rid of your old clothes — just hang them in your closet and ten or twenty years later you’ll be able to put them on again (assuming they still fit!), and be fashionable once more.

Steve Job’s pronouncements on the Post PC era have generated one of these cyclical fashion boomerangs in the tech industry.  As Forrester Research’s Sarah Rotman Epps says:

the “post-PC” concept is more than a decade old: In 1999, MIT research scientist David Clark gave a talk called “The Post PC Internet,” describing a future point at which objects like wristwatches and eyeglasses would be Internet-connected computing devices.

The rhetoric has changed, ten years on, but the concepts are basically the same.  I have an ethernet tap on my kitchen counter, for example, installed in 2001 in order to service the tablet device that would eventually sit there.

Ten years ago, Microsoft tried to counter “Post-PC” by talking about “PC-Plus”, the fear being that Post-PC implied the end of the PC.  Today nobody really believes that.  Ms. Rotman Epps envisions a world where PCs and non-PC devices interact via the medium of the internet, and even Microsoft themselves are apparently working on ARM versions of the next generation Windows OS targeted at non-PC devices.

The biggest difference this time around is simply time.  Ten years ago the devices we envisioned – networked household appliances, tablet devices, facial recognition systems, and so on – were ideas in a lab.  For example, to model a media networked home, we at Microsoft put a $50,000 video switcher into a $1 million lab space, and embedded massive rear projection screens into the walls with custom software to bring internet, movies, and television to these screens in order to simulate the future home.  It looked a lot like what I have in my house today, but I spent a fraction to do it. Back then, it was simply impossible due to costs and manufacturing complexity to bring these ideas to market, but today any consumer can have them thanks to Moore’s Law.

So welcome to the Post PC era, and all of the interactivity, richness, and connectivity that it implies.  Some of us have been waiting a very long time for this day.

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Post image for The invaders are at the gates of mobile

The invaders are at the gates of mobile

by alec on May 18, 2011

Kevin Fox muses that Microsoft, Apple and Google may be “quietly preparing for war with mobile carriers”. He cites the ten-year innovation desert in voice, coupled with the explosion of data on the handset, weaves in Microsoft’s acquisition of Skype, and spins a tale of how the data companies take over the telecom industry.

Implausible? No.  In fact, the innovation piece of the story has been being told for years now.  A band of rebels in the communications industry, myself included, have been speaking at industry events like eComm, authoring documents like the Voice 2.0 Manifesto, and building business plans to pitch to investors for a very long time. Nobody in mobile, however, has been that interested in listening.

Today’s mobile industry is a bit like the music industry. Just as the music industry has been built around physical distribution of goods, and was slow to react to the digitization of music, the mobile industry has been built around a steady predictable minutes model, with share driven by the carrier with the current handset-de-jour. It has made them complacent, and ripe for disruption.

The App Store model was the first real disruption, as it capped new margin growth from software.  Will Microsoft’s acquisition of Skype – the world’s largest carrier of international long distance minutes – be the next disruption?  It’s hard to know, but one thing is certain – the invaders are at the gates and change is coming.

Change is coming.


Tilting at Open Source Windmills

May 18, 2011

Now that Microsoft has bought Skype, calls for the creation of an open source Skype Killer are starting to be heard.  They’re delusional.  There’s only one Skype, and only likely to be one Skype simply because the protocol is closed and the momentum behind Skype is enormous.  That’s why Microsoft bought them, instead of trying […]

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