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Deloitte TMT Predictions

Live notes from Duncan Stewart's presentation this morning:

The TMT predictions are a 1 year snapshot.  These are the hot areas for the next 12 months. 

— Internet —

The rising value of digital protection: instead of "protect and serve" we are now protecting the server.  My PC or smartphone is disposable – but what's stored on it is priceless. If you lose the machine, you lose every email, music file, etc that you've ever created.  Focus is on how we give our mobile devices the same kind of data protection as IT assets have traditionally enjoyed. 

From anonymity to authenticity: where everybody knows your name.  Users are exchanging anonymity for usefulness.  There is real value from having an online presence where you are known.  How do we prove we are who we say we are? Affects commerce, etc.  Expect identity issues to be a big focus in 2008

How to manage talent when legacy becomes the future: everything old is new again.  Why IT departments need to keep their COBOL progammers…. 75% of all transactions in North America are automated via COBOL systems.  COBOL programmers are reaching retirement age. 

The flight to privacy: the "other" Cookie Monster.  How well do we want the internet to know us?  Making transactions easier means surrendering privacy.  Opt-in / opt-out is going to become more common.  Google and Facebook gaffes were both cited. 

— Media —

Stop the presses!  Online is moving (slowly) to the front page: the whole world is watching… and filiming, reporting, writing, arguiing, programming and editing.  Bloggers are getting their own newspaper columns, TV shows.  Much more than traditional reporting though, as data mining applications and mashups are moving to the forefront.  Duncan cites an LA times example that mashes crime stats against LA neighborhoods and asks who are the database experts working in the media environment?  Whole world of media is moving in this direction.

Overcoming online piracy may not mean the end of counterfeit content: the pirate that lives by the (technological) sword, dies by the sword.  The technologies that once allowed piracy to flourish are being used to turn the tables.  Deep packet inspection companies like Sandvine are flourishing.  What does that mean for Net Neutrality?  Can carriers inspect packets like that?

Music will get tangible again: how do you gift wrap an MP3 file?  Or to quote Olivia Newton-Jon: "Let's get physical".  Canadian sales of CDs are down 20% this year, 50% over a decade.  People want packaged media though…. how about a flash stick with music from the live event on it sold as you leave the event?

— Telecommunications —

50 countries now have more than 100% penetration of cell phones.  How to capitalize on the $10 mobile market?  Demand elasticity stops working at some point though.  Stop selling to people, start selling to machines.  2 way cellular on old slow 2.5G networks as people move to 3G.  est 3 to 6 billion machines in the world that could have low cost 2 way wireless applied in 2008.  real time monitoring on power/water meters for example.

Mobile GPS technologies.  Location, location, location… these are the three things that matter most in cellular technologies. Doesn't believe that GPS will take-off on mobile devices in 2008.  Too many problems to overcome around coverage.

Gray is good.  ROI from making telecom accessible to all. The rise of the silver surfer.  The internet isn't just for kids any more — some of the faces on Facebook Mobile have wrinkles.  Biggest seller in UK last year was the "big button" phone.  40% of people age 54+ take, edit and distribute photos from mobile.

— Environmental —

US cleantech index up 37% last year.  Hot space.

The challenge of water scarcity.  Water is the new oil.  Canada is in a happy place.  9% of the worlds fresh water, but 0.5% of the population.  Problem: oil extraction… needs water. 4 bbls water per bbl oil.  desalination needs energy.  Vicious cycle.

Nanotech.  From zero to green hero – nanotechnology's green renaissance: make molecules do our dirty work. Micromachines have been a bit of a bust, but  membranes, coatings, etc. are taking off.   Huge potential in water purification. 

2008 is the year when LEDs go green.  They're bright enough, cheap enough, and people are starting to like them. Builders are loving them. Brighter and brighter with the right color mix is the key.  Incandescent is an insane technology.  5% of US air conditioning in the summer is used to cool down incandescent bulbs!

Virtualization: Rethinking the virtual machine revolution.  Not ever app makes sense for virtualization, but environmental benefits of server farms are real.

Living room is public enemy #1.  Giant TV's suck power.  Living room is estimated to be 50% of household electricity consumption in some countries. Why is their no equivalent of Energy Star for home electronics (there is, Duncan!)

{ 1 comment… add one }

  • devin c holloway January 24, 2008, 12:57 pm

    Thanks for sharing your notes, Alec.

    As for these two quotes –

    "Users are exchanging anonymity for usefulness."

    "Making transactions easier means surrendering privacy."

    – I don't necessarily agree. I like what Liberty Alliance is doing to try and prevent #1 from happening into perpetuity; I think they (or someone else) will succeed at this.

    And #2 isn't quite right. A buddy of mine just pointed me in the direction of Bank of America's ShopSafe, which, in a sense, creates a pseudo credit card number for transactions, making the transaction anonymous. I believe we'll see things like handsets that integrate this feature to allow for data collection at the POS but it will all be done anonymously. These transactions will also get easier.

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