I was introduced to Devin Holloway a couple of days ago, virtually. Mark Mayhew suggested we connect, because he thought that Devin's prognostications for social technology in 2008 would be of interest. He's got a keen eye, that Mark.
Devin's point boils down to this:
- Google is getting into telecom.
- Telecom services can now be effectively monetized through advertising. He cites Fluc and Pudding; I'd also 4INFO.
- Mobile handsets are becoming contextually aware and presence enabled.
- As a result: mobile phones will replace social networks, as we know them today.
He finishes with:
We have presence on the mobile phone, and the mobile phone learns about what, when, why, how, and with whom I do what I do. Are you following, because this is a huge point? At this point my mobile becomes the absolute best measurer and indicator of my very human behavior. As soon as I have a facebook-like news feed for my buddy list (read: presence) on my mobile phone I no longer need to maintain any presence on a walled-in-garden-of-a-site like _________ (enter your SoNet of choice).
The mobile phone is now king of the SoNets. facebook and everyone else better get really good at developing applications for Android to enable user communication across the mobile phone platform or they will just be a footnote in Wikipedia.
I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion that Android will be the social network of the future. At the very least, the immense volume of handsets that Nokia currently ships coupled with Nokia's own publicly stated interest in social networking on their handsets will make it a tough battle. And don't count Facebook out now that there is a native Facebook application for blackberry, and a native Facebook SDK for Windows Mobile.
Nevertheless, mobile presence will be a very large factor in the near future. The only thing that might prevent that from happening would be backward carriers attempts to trap presence within their own walled garden; the cellular network.
Nice to meet you Devin, and your appropriately named blog http://nost.radam.us.