Jeff Pulver’s predictions for 2006 have been languishing in my RSS reader all week. He paints a cautiously optimistic picture. Regulators will continue to "not get it", and the incumbents will continue to try to build walled garden business models. However new applications will appear, driven by the internet industry.
Jeff expects that 2006 will be the year that film and television start to go direct to the net, first. In other words, your favorite TV shows, and maybe even movies, will be available on the internet before traditional media. Although it will happen eventually, my view is that 2006 may be a little too optimistic. The cartel that controls media distribution (Hollywood) isn’t ready to see it be that democratic yet.
Jeff also writes that the sides in the communications war will be thrown into sharper relief — Access Providers vs Applications Providers will be the model. Absolutely. In the Voice 2.0 world we’re all heading toward, access, directory and applications will be the three services we pay for.
Read Jeff’s scorecard for his 2005 Predictions too.