Here is an interesting thought experiment. Google is positioning itself as the platform for the web, which is the reason that Microsoft has launched their Microsoft Live initiative. How real is the threat to Microsoft from Google? I ran the numbers from publicly available financial information, and extrapolated them forward.
At current growth rates, in 2005 Google’s business is roughly three times as large as MSN. In 2006, Google’s revenues are about the same as Office or Windows. And in 2007, Google’s revenues are about the same as Office and Windows combined.
Colored cells are estimates.
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
| $ 1,466 | $ 3,189 | $ 6,219 | $12,127 | $23,648 | |
| MSFT: Client | $10,394 | $11,546 | $12,234 | $12,963 | $13,735 |
| MSFT: Info Worker | $ 9,113 | $10,653 | $11,013 | $11,385 | $11,770 |
| MSFT: MSN | $ 1,953 | $ 2,216 | $ 2,274 | $ 2,334 | $ 2,395 |
Rather illuminating, wouldn’t you say? And now you know the reason that Ray Ozzie made such a point of saying that advertising supported software was part of the strategy at the Microsoft Live launch.
Alec Saunders is the Vice President of Developer Relations for BlackBerry make Research in Motion. This is his personal blog, with his personal viewpoints. Prior to this Alec was the CEO and co-founder of Calliflower — the easiest way to hold a meeting, online, on a conference call, or on the go. A double-decade veteran of product management and marketing, he spent nine years at Microsoft where he helped launch Windows 95, the first two versions of Internet Explorer, the Universal Plug and Play initiative, the push into home markets, opt-in email marketing and what might well go down in history as the very first direct email list ever.
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There is no way Google is going to continue to double it's numbers every year. Worst extrapolation ever.
No doubt. But even if you curb Google's growth rate, it's still a scary scenario for Microsoft. Let's say you trim them to 40% annually. By 2009 they're a bigger company than Windows and Office, rather than 2007.
Did you know that the damn Lulu ad is blocking half your table?
Thanks Matt. Yet another CSS inconsistency between IE and Firefox.
Matt, my CSS mods didn't work, and I'm no wizard… so I edited the text. Not the cleanest solution, but now it's readable. Hope that helps.