Here is an interesting thought experiment. Google is positioning itself as the platform for the web, which is the reason that Microsoft has launched their Microsoft Live initiative. How real is the threat to Microsoft from Google? I ran the numbers from publicly available financial information, and extrapolated them forward.
At current growth rates, in 2005 Google’s business is roughly three times as large as MSN. In 2006, Google’s revenues are about the same as Office or Windows. And in 2007, Google’s revenues are about the same as Office and Windows combined.
Colored cells are estimates.
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
| $ 1,466 | $ 3,189 | $ 6,219 | $12,127 | $23,648 | |
| MSFT: Client | $10,394 | $11,546 | $12,234 | $12,963 | $13,735 |
| MSFT: Info Worker | $ 9,113 | $10,653 | $11,013 | $11,385 | $11,770 |
| MSFT: MSN | $ 1,953 | $ 2,216 | $ 2,274 | $ 2,334 | $ 2,395 |
Rather illuminating, wouldn’t you say? And now you know the reason that Ray Ozzie made such a point of saying that advertising supported software was part of the strategy at the Microsoft Live launch.
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