The papers have all been reporting this morning that the Conservatives, if an election were held today, might be able to eek out a majority. If you’re handy with a spreadsheet, you can figure this out for yourself. I headed over to the Elections Canada website, and downloaded the results for the last election. Next, I converted the whole thing into a pivot table, and then overlaid the poll results from the last week. It’s a little crude, and makes some gross simplifications since I don’t have poll data for every province, but it provides a good snapshot of what might happen if an election were called today.
What did I learn? It would be a stretch to forecast a Conservative majority. There’s no doubt that the Conservatives would win the election, however. The Liberals would likely lose more ground in Quebec, one or two seats in Atlantic Canada, and most of their Western seats. In Ontario, they wouldn’t be wiped out, but they might be reduced from their current 75 seats to somewhere in the low 30’s. In Quebec, I believe the Bloc would increase their representation — all but the Anglo enclaves around Montreal and near Ottawa would vote with the separatists.
So, based on my quick and dirty analysis, if an election were called today, the results would look something like this, then.
Conservative 140 (perhaps as high as 145, but definitely not 155).
- Liberal 85
- NDP 18
- Bloc 65